Home Management Report Outlook Health Care Sector and Markets

Property prices have already fallen in response to the continued decline in demand for residential properties. Falling property prices will hurt consumption owing to their wealth effect. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve is likely to make further rate cuts.

• Asia
  Experts forecast GDP growth of 8.6% for Asia (excluding Japan). In China, concerns about the economy overheating are gaining ground. It is expected that China’s central bank will take further steps to counter this. China’s economy could receive a slight dampener as a result of the downturn in the United States, which accounts for about 20% of China’s exports. However, the economy’s dynamic will remain strong, with an expected growth rate of 10.4%. GDP growth in Japan, which has profited less strongly from the global dynamic in recent years, should be modest at an estimated 1.6% in 2008. Domestic demand is expanding only moderately; export demand continues to be the driver.
• Latin America
  Economic expansion in Latin America should continue at a slightly slower pace in 2008, mainly as a result of the slowdown in the US economy and to a lesser extent that in Europe. GDP is therefore likely to grow by 4.4%. Mexico will be hardest hit because of its strong trade relations with the United States. Mexico’s GDP should grow by 3.4%. Argentina and Brazil are the region’s two countries that are the least vulnerable to the risks that could arise from an economic slowdown in the United States and Europe and an easing in commodity prices. Their economies are more highly developed and more diversified, for instance, they are not dependent on just one export commodity. For 2008, GDP growth of 5.1% is forecast for Argentina and 4.6% for Brazil.

Source: German Council of Economic Exports Annual Report 2007/2008, bank research

HEALTH CARE SECTOR AND MARKETS  

• The dialysis market
  We expect the number of dialysis patients to rise by 5 to 7% in the coming years, although significant regional differences are anticipated. In the industrialized nations such as the United States, Japan and the countries of Central and Western Europe where people already have broad access to dialysis treatment, we expect below-average patient growth. In many developing countries, however, where the needs of patients with chronic kidney failure are still not met sufficiently, we expect above-average growth rates of up to 10 % in these markets. That more than 80% of the world’s population lives in these growth regions highlights the enormous potential of the dialysis market there.
  
  We expect the number of patients with terminal kidney failure to increase worldwide to approximately 2 million by the year 2010. The global dialysis market will probably grow to US$ 67 billion.
  
  Reimbursement schemes for dialysis treatment vary from country to country. The reimbursement structures may also differ within individual countries. They may depend for instance on regional factors, the method of treatment, regulatory aspects, or the status of the dialysis care provider. The reimbursement of dialysis treatment according to quality-based criteria also remains a central issue.